The Moderating Effect of Population Growth on the Relationship between Carbon Emission and Economic Development in Surigao Del Norte, Philippines using Predictive Algorithm

This paper explored the moderating effect of population growth on the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in Surigao del Norte. The descriptive research design of the study has been complemented by data mining techniques in the analysis of the gathered data. The results revealed that the trend of population growth, economic growth, and carbon emission in Surigao del Norte from 2019-2022 were fluctuating based on pre- and post-pandemic effects as well as increased economic activities, industrial growth, and changes in energy consumption patterns. Moreover, the forecasted trend of population growth, economic development, and carbon emission in the next decade is also fluctuating based on the data but notable increase in the population growth for the province will significantly be seen and since the forecasted trend of population growth, economic growth, and carbon emission is fluctuating, it does have a significant contribution to the Philippines population growth, economic development, and carbon emission in the next decade. Consequently, the economic development in the province of Surigao del Norte poses a significant impact towards the province’s carbon emission in the next years and lastly the population growth of Surigao del Norte has a significant and positive influence towards the economic development of the province and its corresponding carbon emissions in the next years.