Interpretable machine‐learning models for predicting creep recovery of concrete

Abstract Creep recovery of concrete is essential for accurately assessing the performance of concrete structures over service time. Existing creep recovery models exhibit low accuracy, and the influencing factors of creep recovery remain inadequately elucidated. In this paper, interpretable machine learning (ML) techniques were employed to develop a prediction model for concrete creep recovery. Several ML techniques were selected including random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and light gradient boosting machine (LGBM). In order to maximize the sample size of the dataset, 109 sets of creep recovery data were collected from existing literatures for model training. Feature selection is utilized to determine the input parameters for ML models, and 12 input variables were selected. The model is fine‐tuned using Bayesian optimization techniques. To ensure the reliability of ML models, 10‐fold cross‐validation and random data splitting were implemented. The results indicate that the ML models exhibited higher accuracy compared to the existing creep recovery model. Among these ML models, LGBM demonstrated superior accuracy, efficiency and stability (with R 2 = 0.993, 0.978, and 0.973 for the training, testing, and validation sets, respectively). Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) were employed to interpret the significance of each input parameter on ML model prediction. Duration after unloading, stress magnitude, and ambient relative humidity were the main feature variables influencing concrete creep recovery. Upon comparing the influencing factors, it was discerned that there exists a distinct difference between creep and creep recovery of concrete.