Local sub‐population dynamics of a central European grey partridge meta‐population support large‐scale conservation approach to halt its ongoing decline

Many farmland birds such as the grey partridge Perdix perdix are experiencing sharp declines across Europe, which can lead to fragmentation and increasing isolation of local populations. Understanding the population dynamics of these local populations is becoming increasingly important for effective conservation efforts. In this study, we used data from grey partridge transect counts with call playback from 2006 to 2023 to investigate the population dynamics of a grey partridge population in central Germany. We employed generalized linear mixed models to model the long‐term meta‐population trend and assessed synchrony between local sub‐populations by calculating the cross‐correlation and the Loreau and de Mazancourt community‐wide synchrony. Additionally, we assessed stability by comparing the extent of yearly fluctuations between sub‐populations and the regional meta‐population by analysing variances. Our analysis revealed that the studied meta‐population remained stable over the course of the study period, despite ongoing declines observed in other regions of Germany. Furthermore, we found that the population dynamics of the sub‐populations were largely asynchronous, and the extent of variance in the sub‐populations was significantly greater than in the meta‐population. The low synchrony between sub‐populations indicates a prevalence of local factors affecting population dynamics, but further research is needed to identify these factors. Our results suggest that asynchrony between sub‐populations may play a role in stabilizing meta‐populations at the landscape level. Based on our results, we argue that large‐scale conservation projects that are able to encompass these population dynamics may help ensure the long‐term persistence of the grey partridge.