Precision and uncertainty in natural gas calorific value estimation: advanced combinatorial predictive models for complex pipeline systems

Abstract In recent years, natural gas pipelines have been characterized by multiple intake points, the mixing of different gas sources, and significant variations in gas quality. The existing volumetric measurement system is no longer suitable for the development and operation of natural gas pipelines in China. To ensure accurate and equitable implementation of natural gas measurement, there is a gradual shift towards energy measurement. However, due to numerous measurement interfaces, installing chromatographs at all measurement stations would lead to substantial investment costs. Therefore, predicting the calorific value of natural gas is a key technology for energy measurement. In view of the issues existing in the current methods of obtaining natural gas calorific value, different prediction models of natural gas calorific value are constructed. According to the influencing factors of natural gas calorific value, the uncertainty evaluation is carried out, and the accuracy of different calorific value prediction models is analyzed by case data. The maximum error of regression equation, response surface analysis, BP neural network and genetic algorithm prediction model is 2.29%, 0.43%, 0.59% and 0.45% respectively. However, the combined calorific value (CCV) prediction model is 0.41%. The results indicate that the predicted value calculated by the CCV prediction model is closer to the actual value and has higher prediction performance, which provides a new method for the calorific value prediction and measurement management of natural gas.