Predictions of Peak Discharge of Dam Failures Based on the Combined GA and BP Neural Networks

In this paper, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was utilized to predict the peak discharge of dam failures, which was based on the combined Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Back Propagation (BP) neural network. The dataset comprises 40 samples from self-conducted experiments and available literature. To compare the efficiency of the suggested approach, three evaluation metrics, including the coefficient of determination (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE), were analyzed for both the BP neural network and the GA-BP neural network. The findings suggest that (1) The prediction accuracy of the GA-BP was better than that of the BP; and (2) Compared to BP, GA-BP demonstrated a 9.07% average improvement in R2, a 57.36% average reduction in MAE, and a 57.53% average reduction in RMSE. In addition, the results of GA-BP and semi-empirical formulas were compared and the effect of three parameters on the peak discharge was analyzed. The results showed that the GA-BP model could effectively predict the peak discharge of dam failures.