Tropical Intraseasonal Variability as a Leading Moisture Dynamic Mode of the Warm-Pool Background State

Abstract Tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV) is dominated by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and its spatiotemporal characteristics vary with the Indo-Pacific warm-pool background on seasonal and longer time scales. Previous works have suggested ISV dynamics in various frameworks, whereas a unifying view remains challenging. Motivated by the recent advance in moisture mode theory, we revisit the ISV as a leading moisture mode modulated by varying background states derived from a reanalysis, using a moist linear baroclinic model (mLBM) improved with a simple convective scheme relating convective precipitation to tropospheric and boundary layer moisture anomalies and simple cloud-radiative feedback representations. Under a boreal winter background state, this mLBM yielded a large-scale but local eastward-propagating mode with a phase speed of 3–5 m s −1 over the warm-pool region, resembling the MJO. Background lower-tropospheric winds and thermodynamic fields are important in determining the growth rate and periodicity of the leading mode, whose stability depends on cloud-radiative feedback and background state variations. We further demonstrate why the MJO is locally contained in the Indo-Pacific warm-pool region. The local thermal/moisture condition and Walker circulation greatly enhance its instability, but outside this region, this mode is heavily damped. Thus, the expansion/contraction of this warm-pool condition may enhance/reduce its instability and expand/reduce its domain of activity. Prescribing El Niño background causes eastward displacement of the wintertime ISV activity, reminiscent of the observed MJO modulations by El Niño. Under a summer background state, the eastward-propagating leading mode resembles the boreal summer ISV but is biased, requiring further model improvements.