Early Effects of the ESRD Treatment Choices Model on Kidney Transplant Waitlist Additions

Key Points The ESRD Treatment Choices model did not lead to an increase in kidney transplant waitlisting. The COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on kidney transplant waitlist additions. Financial incentives alone, in the short term, did not lead to a substantial effect on kidney transplant waitlisting practices. Background Despite the mortality benefit of kidney transplantation over dialysis, only 13% of patients with ESKD are on the transplant waitlist. Given the low rates of transplant waitlisting in the United States, Medicare launched the ESRD Treatment Choices (ETC) model in 2021, the largest mandatory trial of payment incentives in kidney disease, which randomized 30% of health care markets to financial bonuses/penalties to improve kidney transplantation and home dialysis use. This study examines the effect of ETC payment adjustments on US kidney transplant waitlist additions. Methods Using data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network registry, we examined kidney transplant waitlisting trends between January 1, 2017, and June 30, 2022. Participants were divided into intervention and control arms of the ETC model. Using an interrupted time series design, we compared slope changes in waitlist additions after ETC model implementation (implementation date: January 01, 2021) between the two arms, while accounting for differential changes during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Results were stratified by race and ethnicity (White, Black, Hispanic, and other). To examine balance between the two ETC arms, we conducted supplementary analyses using United States Renal Data System and Medicare data. Results After implementation of the ETC model, there were 5550 waitlist additions in the intervention arm and 11,332 additions in the control arm (versus 14,023 and 30,610 additions before the ETC model). After ETC model implementation, there were no significant differences in kidney transplant waitlist additions between the two arms for the overall cohort (slope difference 6.9 new listings/mo; 95% confidence interval [CI], −7.4 to 21.1) or among White (slope difference 2.6/mo; 95% CI, −3.0 to 8.1), Black (slope difference 2.2/mo; 95% CI, −4.3 to 8.7), or Hispanic (slope difference 0.2/mo; 95% CI, −4.5 to 4.9) patients. Conclusions In the 18 months after implementation, the ETC model was not associated with significant changes in new kidney transplant waitlist additions.