New-Tenant Rent Passthrough and the Future of Rent Inflation

New-tenant rent inflation rose sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, subsequently falling. Concomitantly, consumer price index (CPI) tenant rent, which measures rent increases for both new and continuing renters, rose more gradually and, after falling somewhat, has remained elevated. To illustrate why CPI rent inflation has remained elevated, we combine a measure of new-tenant rents and annual renter mobility rates to create a simulated CPI tenant rent inflation measure. We use this simulation to define a "rent gap" that represents the difference between actual CPI tenant rent inflation and rent inflation we would observe if every tenant experienced new-tenant rent inflation. This gap has declined since hitting its peak at the end of 2022 but remains high, implying that existing rents for continuing renters may still be notably below new-tenant rent levels and that rent inflation may remain elevated. However, the future path remains uncertain because it depends on future mobility rates, future passthrough rates, and future new-tenant rent inflation.