Optimization of Renewable Energy Development Strategies in Ukraine

The lack of an effective research-based system of analysis and forecasting in the field of renewable energy is one of the factors that significantly impede the implementation of reforms in the energy sector of Ukraine. This article gives the results of the analysis of the real situation in the renewable energy sector in Ukraine and evaluates the impact of such indicators as nominal GDP, climate change costs, gas imports and coal energy generation on the share of renewable energy sources in final consumption, as well as the approach to substantiating the optimal strategies for the development of renewable energy sources and their replacement of traditional sources. Regression analysis showed that among the studied indicators, the share of renewable energy sources in energy production and consumption can be most significantly increased by additional expenses from the state to the environment issues (climate change and air cleanliness). Optimization of strategies for the development of green energy and the replacement of traditional energy sources by renewable ones was carried out using classical decision-making criteria under risk and uncertainty. To justify the decisions, the criteria of Wald, Savage, Hurwicz, Laplace, Bayes-Laplace and Hodges-Lehmann were used. The same criteria can be applied to the selection of the structural distribution of the replacement of traditional energy sources by the renewable ones. The study also showed that among the three scenarios for the development of RES, namely: increasing the production of solar, wind or bioenergy - it is advisable to increase the share of photovoltaics, that is, invest in the generation of energy using solar panels.