A Structural Analysis of Factors Influencing Farm Management Succession Using the Theory of Planned Behavior

Rural areas are facing increasing delays in farm management succession, contributing to an aging agricultural workforce. Consequently, research on farm management succession has become critical. This study investigates the factors influencing succession intentions among farmers aged 50 and older, utilizing data from 275 valid responses after excluding unreliable entries. Grounded in the Theory of Planned Behavior(TPB), the study employs attitudes toward local agricultural sustainability as a mediating variable, and demographic factors and farming satisfaction as moderating variables. Structural equation modeling(SEM) was applied for empirical analysis. The findings reveal that both attitudes and subjective norms significantly influence farm management succession intentions. Additionally, attitudes toward maintaining local agriculture fully mediate the relationship between perceived behavioral control and succession intentions. Furthermore, significant differences were observed across groups based on the scale of operation and farming satisfaction. These results provide valuable insights and foundational data for the formulation of farm management succession policies.