Exploring the spatial–temporal patterns of urban ecosystem service relationships and their driving mechanisms: A case study of Wuhu City, China

• Urban expansion degrading ecosystem services. • Enhancing ecosystem services requires consideration of their spatial relationships. • Spatial pattern factors drive changes in ecosystem service relationships. • There is a threshold of drivers that promotes synergy of ecosystem services. Understanding the underlying mechanism driving ecosystem service relationships is crucial for developing successful urban planning and management policies. There is still a lack of understanding of the driving factors behind ecosystem service relationships, particularly in terms of long-term assessments of their spatial–temporal patterns and researches on the driving effects and thresholds of the driving factors. This study utilized various analytical methods including the InVEST 3.13.0 model, optimal parameter geographic detector, and bayesian belief network to assess ecosystem serviecs and explore their relationships. Moreover, the study identified the crucial driving factors and their effects to the spatiotemporal variation in ecosystem service relationships in the Wuhu city between 1990 and 2020.The results showed that: (1) The distribution of high-value areas for the three ecosystem services in Wuhu City has remained relatively stable over time. High-value areas for food production services are primarily located in traditional polder fields, flood mitigation services are concentrated in the plains in the north of the city, and habitat quality services are situated in the hills in the south. However, with the expansion of the city, there is a risk of further degradation of the three services. (2) Spatial-temporal changes in ecosystem service relationships were regular, and long-term assessments of ecosystem services and their relationships were important. (3) The biophysical factors exerted the most significant influence on the Spatial-temporal patterns of ecosystem service relationships. (4) The combined effect of two driving factors was greater than that of a single factor. (5)There was a threshold of drivers that promotes synergy of ecosystem services. (6) Multiple ecosystem services might exhibit synergy relationships within the threshold of the same driver. The findings from this study could provide urban managers with valuable insights into the ecosystem services relationships.