How Could They Win? An Exploration of Win Condition for Esports Narratives in Dota 2

Data analytics is commonly used to enable storytelling and enhance esport coverage. One prominent use of it is win prediction, where machine learning models predict the winner of the game before its conclusion. However, predictions are most commonly results of black-box systems, forcing commentators to produce ad-hoc interpretations. Additionally, broadcasters generally rely other metrics to build narratives, limiting the impact of win prediction models for storytelling. This paper explores an alternative method to win prediction, identifying the needs of broadcasters to guide development of a novel win condition model. By focusing on existing storytelling points, the proposed win condition model can offer greater storytelling opportunities to broadcasters, focusing on the user needs identified from within the esport domain. Rather than utilising game state data to predict the winner, as it is usually done in win prediction, the proposed win condition model uses an exploration of the possible winners to predict the game state needed for each team to win. Lastly, the features identified for win condition are evaluated through a series of machine learning models, which provide a data-driven metric to test and predict win condition in the context of Dota 2, a popular esport title.