Beyond diagnosis: using a futurist approach to improve access to radiation oncology services in South Africa

Aim Radiation oncology is an integral aspect of comprehensive cancer treatment, with approximately 50% of patients requiring curative or palliative radiotherapy intervention. In the South African public sector, radiation oncology services are constrained by various factors including service coverage, equipment and staff shortages, causing consequent delays in access to care. The National Cancer Strategic Framework for South Africa (NCSF) (2017-2022) offers strategic direction for cancer services in the country. Methods Futurist causal layered analysis (CLA) provides a comprehensive approach to exploring the multifaceted factors that influence access to radiation oncology services. Using the established layers of CLA, namely, the litany, systemic, worldview and mythical layers, the NCSF, relevant literature, and expert perspectives, were used to explore the multiple levels of influence related to radiation oncology services in South Africa. Findings Considering litany, review of process flows and radiation oncology care models could offer strategic pathways for reducing waiting times and improving access to care. From the systemic layer analysis, health system strengthening should include improving clinical governance and access to available services within both the public and private sectors. This could simultaneously address the worldview of an unconstitutional lack of access to radiation oncology care within the public health sector. The final level considered myths related to radiation oncology in South Africa, including its perceived efficacy only in advanced cancer stages, and highlighted the importance of a business case for radiation oncology services to support enhanced planning and outcomes. Conclusions CLA methodology offers new insights into the challenges and opportunities facing radiation oncology services in South Africa. By comprehensively addressing the complex causal layers impacting radiation oncology services, policymakers and stakeholders can make more informed decisions to improve access to radiation oncology care in the country. The study recommends that the entire cascade of cancer care, including treatment pathways and multi-stakeholder perspectives, should be reviewed. Internal and external factors that delay the initiation of radiotherapy should be mapped and mitigated.