Predicting Metastasis and Mortality Risk in Prostate biopsy using genomics and biopsy related factors

Abstract Introduction/Objective Prostate cancer, the most prevalent cancer among men, is diagnosed through biopsy, yet its predictive accuracy for metastasis and mortality risk remains limited. An approach to stratifying this risk is by combining biopsy data and genetics. The Decipher genomic classifier aids in estimating such risks. This study investigates the correlation between Decipher, biopsy-related factors, and the risk of prostate cancer metastasis or mortality. Methods/Case Report 50 prostatic adenocarcinoma biopsies were analyzed. Patient age, average tumor volume in positive cores, PSA levels, and Gleason score were documented. Employing Tobit regression with maximum likelihood estimation, the study examined the link between various factors and metastasis/mortality risk of prostatic cancer. Dependent variables encompassed 5, 10, and 15-year risks, while the independent variable was patient age, positive to total core ratio, average tumor volume in positive cores, PSA level, and grade group of the prostate cancer. The model integrated three dummy variables-Grade Group 1, 3, and 4, with Grade Group 2 as reference. Coefficients gauged the distinct impact of Level 1, 3, and 4 diagnoses on outcomes relative to Level 2. Statistical significance was tested conventionally. Results (if a Case Study enter NA) Grade Group 1 (Gleason score: 3 + 3): 2.35 percentage point increase in the risk of metastasis within 10 years. 3.51 percentage point increase in the risk of mortality within 15 years. Grade Group 2 Base level for comparison with other grade groups. Grade Group 3 (Gleason score: 4 + 3): No statistically significant difference in the predicting 5 or 10 year risk of metastasis compared to Grade Group 2. No statistically significant difference in the predicting 15 year risk of mortality compared to Grade Group 2. Grade Group 4 (Gleason score: 4 + 4): 10.07 percentage point increase in the risk of metastasis within 5 years. 17.27 percentage point increase in the risk of metastasis within 10 years. 18.48 percentage point increase in the risk of mortality within 15 years. Conclusion The findings suggest combining genomics and grade group can help predict the risk of metastasis and mortality in prostate biopsy. Grade Group 4 diagnosis greatly impacts metastasis and mortality in all timeframes.While Grade Group 1 has a smaller but still significant impact on the 10 and 15 year risk of metastasis and mortality. However, Grade Group 3 diagnosis does not significantly impact the risk of metastasis in any of the timeframes considered.