A paradigm shift in international security as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war

This article presents the main features of the historical genesis of the international security paradigm shift from its institutionalisation to the present day. It is shown that such genesis is sinusoidal in nature and related to the well-known 'Kondratiev waves', except that, unlike the latter, it is not economic in nature, but security in nature. In a historical and geopolitical context, five successive shifts in the international security paradigm (Pre-Systemic, Westphalian, Vienna, Versailles, Yalta-Potsdam, Unipolar) are distinguished as a normatively recognised system of international relations of war and peace, based on all countries' adherence to universally recognised principles and norms of international law, as enshrined in relevant international treaties. The main factors of the end of the era of the unipolar world and the growing role of 'fragile' states in the international security environment as potential objects of international military interventions and spaces for the deployment of local conflicts and wars were characterised. It was concluded that the war in Ukraine is a key trigger for a new paradigm shift in international security and the emergence of a new system of international relations, and that the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war will determine the 'starting positions' and strong arguments in the hands of the United States of America and its allies against China and its allies during the inevitable new global security conference on the creation of a new world order.