Multi-Model Demand Forecasting in Water Distribution Network Districts

A multi-model including three modelling elements is developed to solve the Battle of Water Demand Forecasting problem. The first two modelling elements working in parallel are a pattern-based algorithm and a Random Forest model. By varying the algorithm setting and predictors, 42 algorithms are constructed and calibrated using demand and weather data in the previous weeks to the generic n-th week, when the objective is the prediction of the hourly demand pattern in the n + 1-th week. Then, a third modelling element is used, which consists of an optimizer aimed at combining the results yielded by the 42 algorithms by analyzing algorithm performance in the n-th week. The same algorithm combination is used to forecast demand at the n + 1-th week.