Assessing global pine wilt disease risk based on ensemble species distribution models

• Constructed a risk model for PWD using an ensemble of species distribution models. • Summer temperature, soil clay content, and summer precipitation are key global PWD factors. • Southwestern China, Southeast Asia, and central-southern Europe face high PWD risks. • Future climate changes will expand PWD risk to higher latitudes. Pine wilt disease (PWD), caused by the invasive pine wood nematode, is a major threat to global pine forests. This study utilized global PWD occurrence data alongside climatic, soil, and topographic variables to develop an ensemble of species distribution models. Using this ensemble model, we identified key factors influencing PWD and assessed the risk for current conditions and future periods (2041–2060 and 2071–2090) under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicate that key factors include the average temperature during the hottest quarter, clay content in soil, and precipitation during the hottest quarter, total annual precipitation, and precipitation during the coldest quarter. Currently, southern and northeastern China, central-southern Europe, and Southeast Asia are at high risks. With future climate changes, potential risk areas are expected to expand to higher latitudes, affecting regions like Hokkaido, Canada, and Northern Europe, especially under the SSP585 scenario. This study offers essential insights for global PWD prevention and forests resource conservation.