Impacts of population, affluence and urbanization on local air pollution and land transformation – A regional STIRPAT analysis for German districts

Anthropogenic environmental impacts substantially threaten the sustainable development of cities and counties. This paper offers an original assessment of the role played by population, economic growth and technology change in the evolution of local air pollution and soil sealing, using the STIRPAT approach. The analysis covers the development of 367 German counties and autonomous cities (NUTS 3 level) between 1990 and 2020. Results indicate that the development of NO x emissions and soil sealing is clearly related to car ownership, number of houses and regional population for all counties. In contrast to, environmental impacts related to GDP per capita, share of industrial manufacturing and urban density depend on the types of regions. Finally, results show non-linear (EKC) dynamics regarding the impacts of population and GDP per capita on NO x emissions. Environmental policies need to take care about the settlement structures and the level of relevant variables. • Settlement structure is relevant for environmental effects and associated impacts. • Crucial role of private car ownership with regard to policies fighting air pollution. • Environmental impacts of population increas overproportionately with its level.