Quantifying Soil Loss in the Brazilian Savanna Ecosystem: Current Rates and Anticipated Impact of Climate Changes

ABSTRACT The Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado) is the second‐largest South American biome that corresponds to almost two‐third of the national agricultural production. Extensive agricultural‐driven land‐use changes have significantly altered the landscape, causing increased soil erosion. Furthermore, projections of climate change effects on the Cerrado raise concerns about the potential exacerbation of soil loss and its consequences on ecosystem sustainability. This study investigated soil loss for the Cerrado ecosystem by assessing current rates and projecting the potential effects of future climate change. Current soil loss was based on experimental plots (100 m 2 ) during 7 years maintained under typical main land cover in Brazil (sugarcane, pasture, Cerrado, and bare soil). Erosivity, by using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), was estimated from observations, parameters of erodibility, and land cover. To assess the future soil loss (2100), we used the calibrated USLE equation with yearly erosivity derived from 12 downscaled and bias‐corrected SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios of CMIP6 climate model projections. Current agricultural practices induce considerable erosion, where sugarcane has 3.4 times higher soil loss as compared with the natural soil cover. Regarding future SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios (2100), we estimated an increase of 4.9% and 7.6% in soil loss, respectively, for all land covers. The observed soil loss rates underscore the critical importance of implementing sustainable land management practices to mitigate further soil degradation. Climate change may impose additional stress on the Cerrado ecosystem, amplifying the urgency for adaptive measures to safeguard this important biome.