Future Derecho Potential in the United States

Abstract This study uses high-resolution, convection-permitting, dynamically downscaled regional climate simulation output to assess how long-lived, convectively induced, extratropical windstorms known as derechos may change across the CONUS during the twenty-first century. Three 15-yr epochs including a historical period (1990–2005) and two separate late-twenty-first-century periods (2085–2100) employing intermediate (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenarios are evaluated. A mesoscale convective system (MCS) identification and tracking tool catalogs derecho candidates across epochs using simulated radar reflectivity and maximum 10-m wind speed as a proxy for near-surface severe wind gusts. Results indicate that MCS-based windstorms, including derechos, are more frequent, widespread, and intense in both future climate scenarios examined for most regions of the central and eastern CONUS. Increases are suggested across all parts of the year, with significant changes in populations concentrated during the early spring and summer months, suggesting the potential for a longer, more extreme MCS windstorm season. This research provides insights for forecasters, emergency managers, and wind-vulnerable stakeholders on how these events may change across the twenty-first century so that they may mitigate, adapt to, and become resilient against severe convective storm perils. Significance Statement Long-lived, thunderstorm-induced, damaging wind events known as derechos may increase across most portions of the central and eastern United States in the future, with projections indicating a near doubling or tripling of annual cases in the Midwest, eastern Great Plains, and Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions by the end of the twenty-first century. Modeling projections suggest that future derechos could generally be longer-lived, more expansive, and capable of producing more severe wind gusts and damage, which will ultimately increase risk to life, infrastructure, and wind-sensitive industries affected by these extreme thunderstorm events.