Trends in Special Education Identification During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Michigan

We use data from Michigan and an interrupted time series strategy to show how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted special education identifications and discontinuations. We find a substantial decrease in K–5 identifications and discontinuations during the 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to 2021 school years. Identifications fell by 19% and 12% in the first two pandemic years, with smaller but still significant reductions in discontinuations. Districts with remote schooling and Black, Asian, and economically disadvantaged students saw larger decreases in identifications. By 2021 to 2022 rates returned to trend and continued to grow in 2022 to 2023, albeit at a similar rate to pre-pandemic. This suggests some “catch-up” accounting for delayed or missed identifications but likely not enough at this point to overcome the pandemic induced deficit.