Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts

The field of extreme event attribution (EEA) has rapidly developed over the last two decades. Various methods have been developed and implemented, physical modelling capabilities have generally improved, the field of impact attribution has emerged, and assessments serve as a popular communication tool for conveying how climate change is influencing weather and climate events in the lived experience. However, a number of non-trivial challenges still remain that must be addressed by the community to secure further advancement of the field whilst ensuring scientific rigour and the appropriate use of attribution findings by stakeholders and associated applications. As part of a concept series commissioned by the World Climate Research Programme, this article discusses contemporary developments and challenges over six key domains relevant to EEA, and provides recommendations of where focus in the EEA field should be concentrated over the coming decade. These six domains are: (1) observations in the context of EEA; (2) extreme event definitions; (3) statistical methods; (4) physical modelling methods; (5) impact attribution; and (6) communication. Broadly, recommendations call for increased EEA assessments and capacity building, particularly for more vulnerable regions; contemporary guidelines for assessing the suitability of physical climate models; establishing best-practice methodologies for EEA on compound and record-shattering extremes; co-ordinated interdisciplinary engagement to develop scaffolding for impact attribution assessments and their suitability for use in broader applications; and increased and ongoing investment in EEA communication. To address these recommendations requires significant developments in multiple fields that either underpin (e.g., observations and monitoring; climate modelling) or are closely related to (e.g., compound and record-shattering events; climate impacts) EEA, as well as working consistently with experts outside of attribution and climate science more generally. However, if approached with investment, dedication, and coordination, tackling these challenges over the next decade will ensure robust EEA analysis, with tangible benefits to the broader global community.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Frontiers in Climate
Published
2024-10-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1455023
Citations
20
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
5.65

Funders

Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts

Sarah Kew, Erich Arnold Fischer, Lisa V. Alexander, Clair R. Barnes et al.
20 citations
Frontiers in Climate
Climate variability and models
5.65
article

Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts

Sarah Kew, Erich Arnold Fischer, Lisa V. Alexander, Clair R. Barnes, Mark New, Michael Wehner, Aglaé Jézéquel, Blair Trewin, Robert Vautard, Emanuele Bevacqua, Sjoukje Philip, Rupert Stuart-Smith, Izidine Pinto, Wim Thiery, Sarah Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Kamoru A. Lawal, Douglas Maraun, Tiffany A. Shaw, Aurélien Ribes, Seung‐Ki Min, Romaric C. Odoulami, Samantha Burgess, Andrew David King, Joyce Kimutai, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Jakob Zscheischler, Gerbrand Koren, Christina M. Patricola
article en
20 citations

Abstract

The field of extreme event attribution (EEA) has rapidly developed over the last two decades. Various methods have been developed and implemented, physical modelling capabilities have generally improved, the field of impact attribution has emerged, and assessments serve as a popular communication tool for conveying how climate change is influencing weather and climate events in the lived experience. However, a number of non-trivial challenges still remain that must be addressed by the community to secure further advancement of the field whilst ensuring scientific rigour and the appropriate use of attribution findings by stakeholders and associated applications. As part of a concept series commissioned by the World Climate Research Programme, this article discusses contemporary developments and challenges over six key domains relevant to EEA, and provides recommendations of where focus in the EEA field should be concentrated over the coming decade. These six domains are: (1) observations in the context of EEA; (2) extreme event definitions; (3) statistical methods; (4) physical modelling methods; (5) impact attribution; and (6) communication. Broadly, recommendations call for increased EEA assessments and capacity building, particularly for more vulnerable regions; contemporary guidelines for assessing the suitability of physical climate models; establishing best-practice methodologies for EEA on compound and record-shattering extremes; co-ordinated interdisciplinary engagement to develop scaffolding for impact attribution assessments and their suitability for use in broader applications; and increased and ongoing investment in EEA communication. To address these recommendations requires significant developments in multiple fields that either underpin (e.g., observations and monitoring; climate modelling) or are closely related to (e.g., compound and record-shattering events; climate impacts) EEA, as well as working consistently with experts outside of attribution and climate science more generally. However, if approached with investment, dedication, and coordination, tackling these challenges over the next decade will ensure robust EEA analysis, with tangible benefits to the broader global community.

Frontiers in ClimateVol. 6
Australian National University (AU), Pohang University of Science and Technology (KR), Bureau of Meteorology (AU), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (NL), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE), Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (DE), École Polytechnique (FR), École nationale des ponts et chaussées (FR), Kenya Wildlife Service (KE), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US), University of Cape Town (ZA), University of Graz (AT), The University of Melbourne (AU), Iowa State University (US), Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées (FR), Utrecht University (NL), Yonsei University (KR), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (FR), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), École Normale Supérieure - PSL (FR), UNSW Sydney (AU), ETH Zurich (CH), University of Bristol (GB), Sorbonne Université (FR), University of Oxford (GB), University of Chicago (US), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (FR), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (FR), Météo-France (FR), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR), International Geographical Union (ZA), South African Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative (ZA), Advanced Institute of Convergence Technology (KR), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (AU), African Center of Meteorological Application for Development (NE), Imperial College London (GB), University of Edinburgh (GB)
National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, European Commission, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Monash University, African Union, African Union Commission, Office of Science, Natural Environment Research Council, Australian Research Council, Biological and Environmental Research
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 3%
Climate variability and models
5.65
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.