Threats and forced displacement in Colombia: an analysis based on municipal data

Purpose This paper aims to examine the role of threats in the forced displacement of populations from their municipalities of origin in Colombia that is among the nations with the highest number of internally displaced people in the world with 6.7 million victims. Design/methodology/approach The data cover the period 2011–2017 and were obtained from the Unit for Attention and Integral Reparation to Victims. Using general panel data models and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, this paper finds that threats within the context of the armed conflict show a positive and significant contribution to forced displacement in municipalities. Findings Direct intimidations by illegal armed groups to the population seem to have an influence on the decision of the threatened person to leave the territory in general, although it is not a proportional reaction due to the fact that some victims of intimidations decide not to move to keep their assets and maintain territorial ties. Research limitations/implications The study highlights that the implementation of the Peace Agreements signed in 2016 and the negotiation with illegal armed groups is an effort that the Colombian State must strengthen to prevent the occurrence of threats. Originality/value This paper’s contribution to the literature is twofold: the paper reveals that rising threats encourage forced displacement in Colombia, by embracing a municipality panel data perspective and a difference-in-differences design that were not applied in previous studies; and the results offer suggestive evidence of the importance of decreasing threats for positive peace outcomes, especially in the most affected territories.