Forecasting Trends in Relative Humidity in Iraq (Study in Climate Geography)

The research aims to predict and determine the trend in relative humidity rates (%) in Iraq, for four months (October, January, April, July), as the percentage of water in the atmosphere does not exceed (0.01%) of the hydrosphere at any moment. Despite this, it is an important element in the weather and plays a major role in the formation of clouds, fog, and dew. He is responsible for all major weather events, such as hurricanes and other weather disturbances. To understand the nature of the behavior of relative humidity, its trend, fluctuations, and future changes in time and space, statistical models were designedm(SARIMA) based on the Box–Jenkins method in the time series forecasting method for the period (2023-2037), for the following stations (Kirkuk - Baghdad - Al-Hayy - Samawah - Nasiriyah - Basra) and relying on the base years from (1970 - 2022), and the research adopted the use of The algorithm drawn up by two researchers (BJ 1976), used the autoregressive model and the seasonal integration moving average, which is symbolized by the symbol (p, d, q) (P, D, Q) SARIMA, which is called the seasonal multiplier model.