Projecting the impact of COVID-19 on education and intergenerational mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract Using microsimulations, we project the effect of instructional losses caused by COVID-19 on secondary school completion rates and intergenerational mobility of education in eight countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. On average, secondary school completion rates could decrease by 12 percentage points overall and by 16 points for children with low-educated parents. Interestingly, in most countries the gender gap diminishes because, for men, the projected decrease in secondary school completion is higher. A small additional impact on girls’ education due to the potential rise in teenage pregnancy is observed in some countries. Intergenerational mobility of education in the eight Sub-Saharan countries in our sample is expected to decrease, on average, by 10%.