The value of space activity

It seems likely that human beings have found space valuable, at least as a source of intrigue, since long before anyone knew much about what exists beyond the Earth's atmosphere. It's only since the 1960s, however, that people have been up there, doing things. In this article, I'm going to discuss ‘space activity’ in a broad sense, encompassing not only people and man-made machines doing things in space, but also the resource production and use that enables this. In particular, I'll focus on the value of space activity – again, on a broad conception of ‘value’. I'll begin by discussing the financial value of space activity: first, in the direct sense of its monetary value, in the context of calculations about the current and potential future size of the space economy; and second, in the derived sense of the good that can be brought about through the spending of the money raised through this kind of economic activity. Next, I'll turn to ways in which space activity furthers the human good: that is, how it can bring about things that are objectively and irreducibly good for human beings. Here, I'll focus on happiness and knowledge – discussing, for instance, the way in which knowledge about space is both valuable in itself and can also assist in meeting valuable societal goals, such as medical progress and peace. Finally, I'll briefly discuss space activity as a source of non-human value, in the sense of the good it can bring about for non-human animals, other living things, and natural resources. Discussion about the current and potential future monetary value of space activity is focused on calculations about the ‘space economy’. What this term refers to is contested, particularly in terms of its scope. However, on a ‘widely adopted’ definition, provided by the OECD in the first edition of its Handbook on Measuring the Space Economy, the ‘space economy’ refers to “the full range of activities and the use of resources that create and provide value and benefits to human beings in the course of exploring, understanding, managing and utilising space” (OECD, 2012, p. 3). In the recent second edition of the handbook, however, the OECD implies that whilst providing a satisfactory definition of the space economy was “challenging” back in 2012, subsequent developments have made this task even harder; in particular, “the line between space and non-space activities is increasingly difficult to assess” (OECD, 2022, p. 15). This line-drawing problem is evident across attempts to quantify the monetary value of the space economy. And, as the Institute for Defence Analyses (IDA) emphasises, whilst employing expansive definitions can be useful for some purposes, doing so bears risks here: calculations totalling the size of the space economy “that include downstream activities [that are] not directly related to activities in space may”, for instance, “mislead policy makers” (Crane et al., 2020, p. 2). The World Economic Forum attempts to mitigate this problem by dividing the space economy into its “backbone” and its “reach” – on which the “backbone” encompasses “space applications” with revenues that “accumulate directly to space hardware and service providers”, whereas the “reach” encompasses those where “space is playing a key role in enabling companies across industries to generate revenues” (WEF, 2024, p. 9). Other useful distinctions applied within assessments of the size of the space economy include the following four. First, economic activity is often divided into sectors, whether these are product-focused (e.g. the difference between satellites and rockets) or goal-focused (e.g. the difference between communication and Earth observation). Second, it is often divided into commercial activity and government activity, in terms of both the production of goods and services and the consumption of, and investment in, these goods and services. Third, the space economy and its component ‘space systems’ are sometimes divided into segments based on location or function: as taxonomised on the New Space Economy site, these segments typically include: space, launch, user, link, and ground (New Space Economy, 2023). Here, examples of everyday technology sometimes included in the “ground segment”, such as car satnavs, show particularly clearly the blurred line between what counts as ‘space’ and ‘non-space’. Finally, the IDA purposefully takes a “more targeted” approach in which the space economy is divided into four expenditure-focused categories: (a) government spending on activity in space; (b) household and business spending on services “generated in space”; (c) the sales of space goods and services, such as satellites and launches;1 and (d) the sales of products required to “utilize space services”, such as satellite TV dishes (Crane et al., 2020, p. iii). This context helps to explain why calculations of the 2016 size of the space economy ranged from $166.8 billion, on the IDA's approach, to $350 billion, according to both Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch/Bank of America (OECD, 2022 p. 20). This context should also be taken into account when considering the WEF's recent calculation that the current size of the space economy, on 2023 figures, lies at over $600 billion (WEF, 2024, p. 4). Complications of scope aside, however, Paravano et al. (2023) categorise the current space economy's main value streams as: exploration, observation, satellite navigation, and satellite communications. Indeed, the satellite industry is widely accepted to be an extremely important player,2 with telecoms deemed a crucial “near-term focus” (Morgan Stanley, 2022), and “low-Earth-orbit applications”, in particular, the most significant business opportunity (Menez, 2022). Currently, there are almost 10,000 satellites orbiting Earth (Elefteriu, 2024, p. 4), and the Satellite Industry Association calculates that the commercial satellite industry is worth almost $300 billion and “accounts for 71 per cent of the world's space business” (SIA, 2024). Other standard claims about the current space economy include the following four. First, that almost 80 per cent of the space economy's financial value is found in “commercial space products and services” (Bank of America Institute, 2023, p. 2). Second, that a “dramatic” reduction in payload costs has broken down market barriers, enabling not only new entrants but also the introduction of “new ideas and business models” (Menez, 2022). Third, that whilst the space economy is playing an increasing part in everyday life (again, particularly owing to the widespread adoption of satellite technology), there remains much more value for everyday consumers to realise (Paravano et al., 2023). And fourth, that, particularly in richer countries, various “critical infrastructures” beyond communications are increasingly dependent on “space capabilities” (Menez, 2022), and that this has important implications for national strategy and defence (Elefteriu, 2024), as well as commercial activity. It is universally assumed that the space economy will continue to grow over the next decade. The WEF, again employing an expansive approach, estimates that its size will reach between $1.4 trillion and $2.3 trillion by 2035 (WEF, 2024, p. 23). It's worth noting, however, that assessors making predictions about the future size of the space economy typically admit to omitting certain likely and plausible costs and risks from their calculations — particularly costs and risks relating to societal impact and change. The OECD (2022, p. 113) goes as far as to claim that “the potential negative effects of space programmes on the business enterprise sector overall and/or on society as a whole are rarely discussed in evaluations of the space economy”. Nonetheless, and as largely reflected in the WEF's neat summaries (WEF, 2024, pp. 5, 23), assessors broadly agree upon core financial risks to the growth of the space economy (including changes in demand and regulation, the broad costs of accidents and disasters, and international political uncertainty, lack of collaboration, and unrest), and upon its core financial opportunities (including cost reductions, as well as growing rates of innovation and general intrigue). Beyond this is awareness of calculatory complications, such as instances in which risks provide financial opportunities, including the growing demand for private companies to tidy up “space junk” (Morgan Stanley, 2022), and the particular difficulties involved in attempting to predict future international political settlements. Further standard predictions about the future of the space economy include the following five. First, that the space economy will increase as a proportion of the global economy (WEF, 2024, p. 4). Second, that it will become even more focused on communications (WEF, 2024, p. 23). Third, that there will be an increase in the range of investors, including growing institutional investment (Menez, 2022). Fourth, that space futures markets will expand (Menez, 2022). And fifth, that the number of countries actively involved in the space economy will continue to grow. There's also much discussion about the ongoing relevance of the state. It's generally assumed that state spending will continue to be “the cornerstone” of the space economy (WEF, 2024, p. 4), and that state incentives (including grants, procurement opportunities, prizes, and policy targets) will continue to have a significant impact, as will broader legislative and regulatory developments (see, for instance, the recent enaction of the American CHIPS and Science Act, and the EU's development of a European Space Law). Finally, it's worth noting that previous estimates significantly underestimated the then-future size of the space economy: according to the Bank of America (2023), the space economy's size in 2021 was “up over 60 per cent from estimates just a decade prior”. It's also worth remembering, however, what's been described as the “wildly missed revenue projections” (Rainbow, 2024) of the space-focused special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Beyond calculations about the current and potential future monetary value of space activity is acknowledgement of the good this economic activity can, and does, bring about. I'll discuss below ways in which, for instance, space technology can be used to alleviate Earthly problems and how space activity can further the pursuit of knowledge. But financially, the good of space activity pertains to the good things that the money it raises are spent upon, whether profits or tax revenue, and whether this spending is optional or state-mandated. In other words, if space activity grows as a part of human life, and space continues to offer up new ownerships and new markets, then individuals, groups, and humanity as a whole will gain increasing opportunities to benefit through space-economy money being well spent, in space and on Earth. That space activity remains extremely new, however – and that developments continue to happen apace – complicates questions about the distribution of many of the valuable opportunities the space economy offers. Does it matter, for instance, that such a small number of people, from a small (albeit fast-growing) number of countries, can directly take part in space activity? Whilst 77 countries now have space agencies (Space Crew, 2024), and satellites are reported to be “registered in 105 countries or multinational organizations” (Nanoavionics, 2023), only 23 countries have been represented by individuals visiting the International Space Station (NASA, 2024), and only 16 have launch capabilities (Space Crew, 2024). By 2021, the number of people who had spent time in space was only 570, the vast majority of whom were American (Mathieu & Roser, 2023). And what about any economic activity, per se, that these people undertake, whilst they are in space? That is, what about any work they do, or what about any (space or Earthly) resources they consume or otherwise appropriate? How should these activities be regulated? Questions arise about the assignment of legal property rights, about fair and productive approaches to taxation, and, at a meta-level, about who should govern what. These are classic questions, with empirical as well as normative dimensions, which apply to all kinds of economic activity – but, clearly, there are added complexities here. This is not least because space activity is currently governed by international law, which is ill-equipped to deal with certain developments of the space economy. As noted above, states remain, and are predicted to remain, the biggest space players, but commercial actors are playing an ever-growing role. And whilst individuals and firms do face some legal obligations under international law,3 primarily it binds nations. Financially, a key governance consideration relates to the relevance of the inputs of space-created wealth – the resources that have been used, the labour and capital that have been expended – and how this should affect regulation, taxation, and access to opportunity. As yet, this topic is not sufficiently high on any political agenda. 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