Enhancing precision of flood estimation in EOS-04 SAR imagery: a statistical approach

Floods pose a recurrent and devastating natural disaster in India, and accurate and timely assessment of their extent is crucial for effective disaster management and mitigation efforts. In this regard, this study proposes a novel approach for flood inundation estimation through the statistical analysis of two key geospatial datasets: the Normalized Difference Flood Index (NDFI) and temporal Standard Deviation images. To establish a baseline under ordinary conditions, two products were derived. The first product is the mean image during the non-flood season, and the second is the temporal Standard Deviation image for the entire year. These images are derived from Sentinel-1A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data using Google Earth Engine (GEE). The NDFI is calculated by comparing the mean image to the image obtained during flood event, allowing the identification of flood-affected areas. The process involves constructing Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) plots for NDFI and Standard Deviation, from which a 95% density ellipse is generated using the covariance matrix and eigenvalues. Multiple SAR scenes from diverse regions in India are analyzed individually, yielding density ellipses for each location. The innovative step lies in synthesizing these individual ellipses into the best fit ellipse through the convex hull method. This best fit ellipse encapsulates the general flood characteristics observed across disparate geographic regions, providing a unified representation. The derived best fit ellipse serves as a powerful tool for generating near-real-time flood inundation maps, with an overall accuracy of over 98.2%. Thus, the fusion of statistical insights and historical SAR information enables rapid near-real-time flood mapping, with enhanced accuracy of flood extent predictions.