Dynamic human reliability analysis method for nuclear power plant main control room based on SPAR-H and SD

Human reliability analysis (HRA) plays a vital role in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) by quantifying the reliability and safety of complex technical systems through the estimation of human error probabilities (HEPs). Standardized plant analysis risk human (SPAR-H) reliability analysis is widely used for HRA; it adjusts the nominal HEP by assigning different multipliers to the performance shaping factors (PSFs). However, SPAR-H cannot capture the time-varying nature of HEPs; therefore, it cannot realistically respond to the accumulation and fluctuation of human risk factors across the mission. Hence, this study proposed a systematic method of dynamic HRA. It includes decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-interpretative structural modeling (DEMATEL-ISM) to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the hierarchical causality among the PSFs and their influence on each other based on their relative relationship in SPAR-H and construct hierarchical causality diagrams among the PSFs. Additionally, it uses a system dynamics method in conjunction with the analysis of time-dependent PSFs based on the hierarchical causality diagrams of PSFs to respond to the time-varying nature of HEPs. The simulation and rationale check results of the cases show that the proposed dynamic HRA method can realize a more realistic and dynamic estimation of HEPs.