How will physical activity change in an autonomous future?

Physical activity is beneficial to health, yet a substantial proportion of people do not meet minimum physical activity recommendations. The introduction of autonomous vehicles is likely to bring about changes that both promote and discourage people from being physically active. However, attempts to predict how autonomous vehicles will affect engagement in physical activity have yielded mixed results. The present study used a novel approach to better understand how people's lifestyles might be affected, and whether some people may be more vulnerable to increased inactivity. In total, 1078 respondents completed an online survey that included a vignette describing a future scenario where autonomous vehicles are in common use. Respondents reported their anticipated changes in exercise levels and associated reasons. Frequency analyses were conducted to examine predicted changes in physical activity and two generalised linear models were run to identify factors associated with predicted decreases and increases in exercise. Only minor changes in anticipated levels of physical activity were observed. However, younger people, those who were less active, and those who spent more time using cars and public transport, were more likely to expect they would be increasingly sedentary in the scenario. Less incidental exercise, widespread convenient delivery services, and increased access to door-to-door transport were cited as being the main reasons for anticipating being less active. The introduction of autonomous vehicles and delivery services will need to be carefully managed to avoid reduced physical activity among certain groups. Proactively employing harm-reduction strategies is a potential means to foster active lifestyles in an autonomous future. • Autonomous vehicles and delivery services could affect engagement in exercise. • Convenience afforded by these new technologies could increase sedentarism. • Improved active transport infrastructure might foster physical activity. • The introduction of autonomous technologies will need to be carefully managed. • Policies that support physical activity and active transport will be important.