Formal school exclusions over the educational lifecourse in Wales

For the first time, this paper takes a dynamic approach to studying formal school exclusions and their association with educational outcomes. In particular, we study every instance of school exclusions over a key part of a pupil’s education lifecourse between Year 6 (end of primary school) to Year 11 (end of secondary school). Using a single population cohort of all pupils in maintained schools in Wales, we show that the frequency of formal school exclusions varies over pupils’ lifecourse and identify five main exclusion trajectories, reflecting these variations over time, as follows: no exclusions, low level exclusions, early rise in exclusions, high-level Year 11 exclusions and late rise in exclusions. These general trajectories may suggest differences in the underlying reason for school exclusions that are not necessarily evident in pupils’ official records or as reported by individual schools. We also show the differential impact of these exclusion trajectories on later educational outcomes. Highlighting these different trajectories may be useful to policymakers and practitioners when developing national and local guidance around school exclusions. They may also reflect unknown biases in the likelihood that a pupil gets excluded from school, often a major area of concern in debates around inclusive education.