Grassland or Cropland? Land Use Dilemma and Ecological Solutions in Inner Mongolia

ABSTRACT Inner Mongolia plays a critical role in both ecological conservation and food provision in China. However, some researchers have argued that focusing on and improving only one side of the equation necessarily threatens the functionality of the opposite side. To address this problem, we compared a “business‐as‐usual” scenario (BAU) with a “sustainable land use planning” scenario (SLU) constructed by simulating spatiotemporal changes in croplands and grasslands in Inner Mongolia from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, we analyzed the changes in ecosystem services and protein supply associated with changes in land use. We found that, in the BAU scenario, grasslands would decrease by 1.85% over the simulation period, while croplands would increase by 9.94%, with ecosystem services decreasing under both land uses. In contrast, land use changes over the same period in the SLU scenario are more significant, with increases of 11.33% and 2.78% in grassland and cropland, respectively, but, in this case, with ecosystem services increasing under both land uses. Moreover, protein supply increased under both scenarios, but SLU scenario can provide 33% more protein than the BAU scenario. The interconversion of cropland and grassland is the main type of land conversion in the study region, while cropland, grassland, and bare land show a triangular cycle of conversion. In addition, the implementation of scenario planning can realize multiple dividend for cultivation, livestock, and ecology in Inner Mongolia.