Analyzing Current Trends and forecasting Snow Cover Dynamics: A Multi-Data Approach utilizing Satellite Data, ERA5 and SSP Scenarios for Enhanced Disaster Preparedness

The Indus Himalayan region, characterized by its challenging mountainous terrain, presents obstacles for ground observations. This study aims to investigate variations in Snow Cover Area (SCA) and its relationship with other climatic variables. We utilized MODIS snow cover, temperature, ECMWF ERA-5 and SRTM elevation products to assess present trends (2002-2023) and CMIP6 SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) to project future impacts (2024 to 2100) of climate change. Statistical analyses reveal decadal trends in SCA, with slight increases observed in winter, summer, autumn and annual periods (0.14% year−1, 0.33% year−1, 0.45% year−1 and 0.35% year−1 respectively). A significant positive trend is noted in spring (July-September) at 0.35% year−1. The study indicates an insignificant negative correlation (−0.81) between SCA and Land Surface Temperature (LST), suggesting potential climate change impacts on SCA depletion in the Northwest Himalayan (NWH) region. By projecting future climate scenarios including changes in temperature, precipitation patterns and annual frost days (Tmin < 0°C) until 2100, we observed a reduction in frost days and increasing temperatures due to climate change. Understanding evolving climate dynamics and snow cover trends is essential for developing effective strategies to address climate change impacts and to ensure community resilience in the Indus Himalayas.