Generalized contact matrices allow integrating socioeconomic variables into epidemic models

Variables related to socioeconomic status (SES), including income, ethnicity, and education, shape contact structures and affect the spread of infectious diseases. However, these factors are often overlooked in epidemic models, which typically stratify social contacts by age and interaction contexts. Here, we introduce and study generalized contact matrices that stratify contacts across multiple dimensions. We demonstrate a lower-bound theorem proving that disregarding additional dimensions, besides age and context, might lead to an underestimation of the basic reproductive number. By using SES variables in both synthetic and empirical data, we illustrate how generalized contact matrices enhance epidemic models, capturing variations in behaviors such as heterogeneous levels of adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions among demographic groups. Moreover, we highlight the importance of integrating SES traits into epidemic models, as neglecting them might lead to substantial misrepresentation of epidemic outcomes and dynamics. Our research contributes to the efforts aiming at incorporating socioeconomic and other dimensions into epidemic modeling.

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Publication Details

Journal
Science Advances
Published
2024-10-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk4606
Citations
27
Primary Topic
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
10.67
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article

Generalized contact matrices allow integrating socioeconomic variables into epidemic models

Nicola Perra, Lorenzo Dall’Amico, Michele Tizzoni, Adriana Manna et al.
27 citations
Science Advances
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
10.67
article

Generalized contact matrices allow integrating socioeconomic variables into epidemic models

Nicola Perra, Lorenzo Dall’Amico, Michele Tizzoni, Adriana Manna, Márton Karsai
article en
27 citations

Abstract

Variables related to socioeconomic status (SES), including income, ethnicity, and education, shape contact structures and affect the spread of infectious diseases. However, these factors are often overlooked in epidemic models, which typically stratify social contacts by age and interaction contexts. Here, we introduce and study generalized contact matrices that stratify contacts across multiple dimensions. We demonstrate a lower-bound theorem proving that disregarding additional dimensions, besides age and context, might lead to an underestimation of the basic reproductive number. By using SES variables in both synthetic and empirical data, we illustrate how generalized contact matrices enhance epidemic models, capturing variations in behaviors such as heterogeneous levels of adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions among demographic groups. Moreover, we highlight the importance of integrating SES traits into epidemic models, as neglecting them might lead to substantial misrepresentation of epidemic outcomes and dynamics. Our research contributes to the efforts aiming at incorporating socioeconomic and other dimensions into epidemic modeling.

Science AdvancesVol. 10(41)
HUN-REN Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics (HU), Institute for Scientific Interchange (IT), Queen Mary University of London (GB), University of Trento (IT), Central European University (AT)
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
10.67
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Generalized contact matrices allow integrating socioeconomic variables into epidemic models — Nicola Perra, Lorenzo Dall’Amico, et al. · Science Advances (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS