Forecast of potential suitable areas for forest resources in Inner Mongolia under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 245 scenario

• Precipitation is the most critical factor affecting the distribution of dominant tree species. • There are obvious differences in the dominant tree species in the western, central and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia. • In the future, the suitable area of most dominant tree species will increase, but there are exceptions. • The suitable areas for nearly all dominant tree species migrated westward. The identification and prediction of potential suitable areas for forest resources in Inner Mongolia based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model are of great significance for the protection and utilization of forest resources and the promotion of sustainable development in the region. This study collected geographical distribution data of 14 dominant tree species, selected 32 environmental variables combined with climatic, topographic, and soil indicators, and used the MaxEnt model to predict potential suitable areas for each tree species under the current and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP245) climate scenario. We identified the environmental factors that make the greatest contribution to the distribution of various tree species, and by taking cities as units, we delineated Inner Mongolia, investigating the suitable tree species for different areas. The results are as follows: (1) The accuracy of MaxEnt model was good, and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) > 0.8, Kappa > 0.8, True Skill Statistic (TSS) > 0.7 of each dominant tree species proved that it could effectively simulate the potential suitable area of each tree species. (2) The influence of environmental factors on suitable areas varies with tree species, and compared with terrain and soil indicators, climate indicators exhibit a greater influence. (3) The main suitable tree species in the Western Desert Region are drought-tolerant shrubs. The Central Prairie Region is dominated by arbor-shrub mixed forest. The Eastern Forest Region is mainly suitable for Betula platyphylla , Betula dahurica and so on. (4) In the future climate under the SSP245 scenario, the suitable area for Pinus sylvestris , Populus simonii , Larix gmelinii , and Betula platyphylla would show a decreasing trend, whereas the other 10 tree species would exhibit an increasing trend. Furthermore, the distribution center of the suitable areas for most tree species would move to the west.