Global and regional prediction of heterakidosis population prevalence in extensive backyard chickens in low-income and middle-income countries

Extensive backyard chickens are one of the most common production systems in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this production system, chickens are exposed to infectious forms of parasites as a result of the outdoor access and scavenging behaviour. Heterakis gallinarum is one of the most common nematode parasites present in the environment, and estimating its global and regional prevalence is essential for attributing the economic losses in extensive backyard chickens. The objective of this study is to predict the prevalence of heterakidosis in extensive backyard chickens at global and regional levels in LMICs using regression imputation methods. A binomial random effect model was developed using empirical data on heterakidosis prevalence and climatic factors as main predictors. Prevalence data were then imputed in all regions based on the regression model. Global and country prevalence were estimated based on regional predictions and their beta distributions. Minimum precipitation, minimum temperature and maximum temperature were selected as significant predictors. The population prevalence of heterakidosis was 0.24 (0.19-0.29). Countries with continental and dry climates had a higher mean prevalence, whereas countries with tropical climates had a lower mean prevalence of heterakidosis. As more empirical data on heterakidosis prevalence become available, this model and predictions should be redefined and updated to capture a more representative association and increase the accuracy of the predictions. The results of this study can be used to attribute the economic losses of extensive backyard chickens, taking into account a holistic approach as promoted by the GBADs programme and therefore, to identify which diseases are more costly to backyard farmers. Furthermore, results can be also served as a proxy for the risk of histomoniasis in extensive backyard chickens.