Predicting the Probability of Abrupt Changes to Wave‐Generated Seafloor Sand Ripples

Abstract A new, non‐dimensional ripple reset parameter and a stochastic point process model is used to estimate the likelihood of propagating ocean waves to form ripples on sandy seabeds. The ripple reset parameter is a function only of water depth, significant wave height, and mean grain size. Ripple formation is estimated by the magnitude of an intensity function based on a time series of the ripple reset parameter. The point process model is trained with a time series of observed waves and ripple change, and is then applied to predict the probability that a ripple field with a different geometry will form within a given time interval from another time series of wave data. The model is trained and tested with four field deployments at three field sites to determine its skill in predicting the ripple formation (a) at one field site over one time period after being trained with observations from the same site over a different time period, and (b) at one field site after being trained with observations from another field site. Results show that while the model is sufficient at predicting ripple formation in both scenarios, it is sensitive to the quality and quantity of the training data. Increasing the amount of training data greatly improves model performance. Employing a stochastic model based on a simple ripple reset parameter reduces tunable model parameters and provides a prediction of the probability for ripple formation given only a water depth, grain size, and time series of wave heights.