Capacity Factor Forecasting for Generation Facilities Based on Renewable Energy Sources in Decentralized Power Systems

One of the directions of development of the electric power industry is decentralization, aimed at improving the reliability of energy supply, reducing losses during transmission of electric energy and ensuring energy independence of consumers. It is possible to simulate decentralized power systems, including distributed generation facilities, by implementation of multi-agent systems that allow solving design and control problems taking into account the needs of each participant in the process of production, transmission, distribution and consumption of electricity. The development of distributed generation using a multi-agent approach requires the creation of models for assessing the technical and economic efficiency of decisions made by each agent, both at the strategic and tactical levels. The strategic decisions of agents related to distributed generation include, among other things, the creation of power facilities and power plants based on renewable energy sources. An important factor for making such decisions is the estimation of the capacity factor. However, currently there are no models for its estimation with high reliability. The present paper proposes a new algorithm for estimating the capacity factor for the entire territory of a certain administrative unit and a model for its forecasting based on climatic and geographical parameters. The study was conducted on a data sample of 221 generation facilities (solar and wind power plants) in four oblasts (regions) of the Russian Federation. It has been determined that the capacity factor can be forecasted with a mean error within 4 % for photovoltaic power plants and 9 % for wind power plants. Therefore, it is possible to use the developed algorithm and model both in decision support systems when choosing the location of this types of power plants, and in systems that model the development of power systems using a multi-agent approach.