Analysis of Policy Effects of Designation of Housing Speculation Area: Focusing on the Designations of Housing Speculation Areas in Years 2017 and 2018

In a situation where regulations have become redundant and complex due to the revision of the policy of designating regulatory districts, this study examined the policy characteristics of the designation of housing speculation areas and empirically analyzed the individual policy effects of housing speculation areas. In order to estimate the time-varying policy effects and heterogeneous policy effects according to price levels, the difference-in-differences method that considers time-varying policy effects was used for submarkets classified by price levels of KRW 900,000,000. As a result of the analysis of Seoul, the designation of housing speculation areas in 2017 had the effect of increasing apartment prices, but the designation in 2018 played a role in stabilizing apartment prices, showing mixed policy effects. This suggests that it is difficult to predict the policy effect of designation of housing speculation areas. In addition, it was confirmed that the designation of speculation areas can have effects different from the policy intention depending on the subsequent real estate policy implemented after the designation, and can play a role in stabilizing housing prices depending on the housing market environment. This suggests that real estate policies must be elaborately prepared in order for the designation policy of housing speculation areas to be effective.