Physics-informed deep convolutional network for combined sea ice concentration and velocity prediction

Accurate prediction of short-term fluctuations in Arctic sea ice is important for safe use of Arctic shipping routes. While deep-learning models can improve the accuracy of sea-ice predictions, the accuracy and predictability of short-term sea-ice conditions are limited in most purely data-driven deep-learning models that consider a single aspect of sea ice, without considering the physical variation law between several sea ice factors. We propose dual-task prediction models for sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice velocity (SIV), and incorporate a loss function that simultaneously addresses dynamic constraints of SIC and SIV into each model, based on dynamics terms in the sea ice control equation. Comparative experiments are performed to determine which model structure best performs at predicting SIC and SIV. We report a dual-task branching structure to be more suitable for predicting SIC and SIV, and a post-decoder branch network structure to best predict SIC and SIV. Adding a sea ice dynamics equation to the loss function improves the model fit with dynamics law, improving the predictability and prediction accuracy of SIC and SIV. • Dual-task branching structure is more suitable for prediction of sea ice concentration and velocity, where post-decoder branching structure is the best. • Incorporate dynamics equations into deep learning model to improve prediction of sea ice concentration and sea ice velocity. • Dual-task model incorporating dynamics constraints fits well with the physical law of sea ice and predicts better than climate state for more than 30 days.