Hydrological and morphological responses in the São Francisco River Basin (Northeast Brazil) resulting from river damming and climate changes in a tropical region

Abstract The São Francisco River in Northeast Brazil has seen hydrological and morphological changes due to extensive damming and climate change over the past century. In this study, we examine the influence of human activities and natural fluctuations in precipitation on the hydrological patterns of the basin and the morphological responses of the lower course of the river (LOW‐SF) to these alterations over a span of several decades. The findings indicate a decrease in water release by 41% from 1995 to 2013 and 54% from 2013 to 2018, solely attributed to human actions. Furthermore, the operation of the reservoirs of the large dams resulted in a reduction in hydrological seasonality. The changing hydrological regime caused morphological changes that resulted in an expansion of the exposed subaerial fluvial bars in the LOW‐SF and a reduction in channel width. As a result, the abandonment of small secondary channels occurred, leading to the cessation of inundation in previously buried elevated portions of bars, even during certain seasons. Another important factor was the spread of morphological changes in the LOW‐SF, which started from the areas farthest from the last dam in the series of large dams, the Xingó Dam, and spread to the nearby regions. This is due to the lack of major tributaries in the semiarid region of the LOW‐SF. The integrated assessment presented in this study illustrates both natural and anthropogenic influences. Moreover, in light of projected declines in precipitation, it is anticipated that natural phenomena could result in a substantial 73% decrease in water flow by the mid‐20th century. This climatic scenario will lead to increased utilization of hydroelectric plants and more stringent control of water flow downstream of the dam cascade, intensifying the already documented adverse effects and posing the possibility of novel morphological adaptations.