The Comparative Analysis of Integrated Moving Average and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Methods for Predicting Bitcoin Returns

The rise in popularity of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin across various platforms has attracted the attention of young investors, making it easier for them to invest. However, due to the volatile nature of Bitcoin, this type of investment carries a high risk. Therefore, this research conducts an analysis of stock return prices to minimize losses and help investors make effective investment decisions through stock price prediction. The focus of this study is on predicting Bitcoin stock returns by analyzing closing price data over the past five years (2019-2024). The methods used are a comparison between Integrated Moving Average (IMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) with a quantitative approach using R Studio software. One of the main focuses of this research is the comparison of error estimation values between the two methods, namely Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The data analyzed comprises the daily closing prices of Bitcoin over the last five years, which is publicly accessible data. The best model for predicting the daily return of Bitcoin stock is the ARIMA (1,0,1) model. The predicted values for the next five days, from May 27, 2024, to May 31, 2024, are 0.0016632438, 0.0007991618, 0.0013415932, 0.0010010794, and 0.0012148386. The ARIMA (1,0,1) model has error measurement values with an MAE of 2.3% and an RMSE of 3.5%. It is hoped that this research will provide a better understanding of the effectiveness and relative advantages of the IMA and ARIMA methods in forecasting cryptocurrency returns, thereby offering more accurate guidance for investors in making investment decisions.