ON MIGRATION ASPIRATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

Southeast Europe is considered a traditional emigration region in the past and present. Our study looks to the future and focusses on migration intentions there. The representative database of the OeNB Euro Survey offers the opportunity to analyse both large-scale and small-scale as well as group-specific differentiations beyond the question of the potential for future mobility in Southeast Europe. It became evident that migration intentions are still high despite the strong emigration of the past three decades; around one in seven respondents expressed this view. It can also be seen that pure intentions are often accompanied by concrete plans, especially in the case of Albania and Serbia. Age and level of education as well as a lack of trust in government policy are important determining factors. The preference for Germany as a destination country in the post-Yugoslav region indicates the persistence of networks from the Gastarbeiter era. From a spatial perspective, it is also clear that it is mainly the deprived regions of South-East Europe where migration intentions are particularly strong. However, the affected sub-regions are not necessarily those in which the plans are very concrete, i.e. there is often a considerable gap between aspirations and capabilities. In this respect, concrete migration intentions at the NUTS 3 level often present a fragmented picture; network structures on a local basis are likely to be decisive here. The long-term and sustainable effects of the migration that is expected to continue, with the corresponding consequences for demographics, education, labour force potential and social infrastructures, remain problematic.