Wastewater flooding risk assessment for coastal communities: Compound impacts of climate change and population growth

• Holistic wastewater modeling framework for flooding risk assessment is proposed. • Studies often overlook compound climate change and population growth impacts. • Framework merges city to property level flood risk and WWTP capacity evaluation. • Sewer age-based Manning roughness values were estimated and applied. • Insight will help municipalities with urban wastewater master planning studies. The study introduces a wastewater modeling framework that evaluates the compound impacts of intense rainfall, groundwater infiltration, sewer aging based roughness and population growth on wastewater systems. It integrates property and city-level flooding risk assessment and wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) capacity analysis into a single methodological approach. The framework applied to the coastal city of Charlottetown, whose population increased from 30,887 in 1981 to 42,440 in 2023, but the wastewater system did not expand accordingly, resulting in frequent sewer backups, street and basement flooding, as witnessed during the extreme wet weather event of 2 September 2021. Using PCSWMM (Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model) model, the study assessed that the city-wide wastewater flooding risk in Charlottetown, based on 2023 population data and historical IDF curves, affects 13.31% of the network during a 2-year storm and 18.38% during a 100-year storm. These risks increase to 14.5% and 22.6% under future IDF scenarios, reaching 17.89% and 26.4% by 2060 with projected population growth. The WWTP capacity is exceeded by 27.8% during peak wet weather flows from a 2-year storm and by 86.3% during a 100-year storm, based on 2023 population and historic IDFs. Under future IDF scenarios for 2060 population, exceedances rise to 103.6% and 169.1% respectively for a 2-year and 100-year storm. Basement flooding risk affects 13.35% of basements during a 2-year storm and 18.31% during a 100-year storm, for 2023 population and historic IDFs. Future IDF scenarios indicate risk increasing to 17.77% and 25.80% by 2060 for a 2-year and 100-year storm respectively. The hydraulic modeling results indicate that GWI is not currently impacting the study area, nor is it expected to in near future, because the groundwater table is over 10 m deep, while wastewater pipes are no deeper than 6 m. The framework and study have significant social implications and benefits, including protecting public health, enhancing the resilience of urban infrastructure, and safeguarding the environment, ultimately improving the quality of life for residents in coastal communities like Charlottetown.