Tracking mangrove condition changes using dense Landsat time series

Mangroves in tropical and subtropical coasts are subject to episodic disturbances, notably from severe storms, leading to potential widespread vegetation mortality. The ability of vegetation to recover varies, and with disturbances becoming more frequent and severe, it is vital to track and project vegetation responses to support management and policy decisions. Prior studies have largely focused on binary mangrove mapping (i.e., presence or absence), while tracking conditions and condition change have not received sufficient attention. In this paper, we demonstrate a method based on dense time series Landsat images for continuous monitoring of mangrove conditions, where we track three kinds of post-disturbance mangrove conditions, including disturbed (disturbed, with rebound to the previous state within one growing season), recovering (undergoing natural recovery in longer than one growing season), and declining (showing long-term decline after disturbance). The method starts with disturbance detection using the DEtection and Characterization Of the tiDal wEtland change (DECODE) algorithm, an existing dense time series model designed to detect disturbances in tidal wetlands with adaptation to tidal fluctuations. This algorithm is well suited for the detection of tidal wetland disturbances but does not provide satisfactory post-disturbance monitoring results, due to the substantial variability in post-disturbance Landsat observations. To better monitor post-disturbance conditions, a new time series fitting approach, DECODER (DECODE and Recovery), is proposed for the recovery stage. Additionally, for temporal segments divided by disturbance events, we built a random forest classifier with temporal-spectral variables derived from the time series model to characterize mangrove conditions. Employing this approach in Florida's mangroves, we generated condition maps, such as dieback and recovery, with an overall accuracy of approximately 97.96 ± 0.86- [95 % confidence intervals]. Comparing post-hurricane conditions in Florida revealed that the increased frequency and severity of disturbances are challenging mangrove resilience, potentially diminishing their ability to recover and sustain ecosystem functions. • A time series model for continuous and automated tracking of mangrove conditions. • Ability to automatically identify conditions of mangroves that are healthy, disturbed, naturally recovering, or declining. • Ability to predict mangrove resilience, or capability to recover to pre-disturbance conditions. • Mangroves in Florida are under increased stress due to more intense and frequent hurricanes.