Adapting management of Pacific salmon to a warming and more crowded ocean

Abstract The North Pacific Ocean is warming and overall Pacific salmon abundance is higher now than at any other time in the past century. This increase in abundance is in large part due to warming-related changes in marine ecosystems at northern latitudes that primarily benefit pink salmon, and industrial-scale hatchery production to support commercial fisheries. A large body of evidence indicates that increasing and more variable ocean temperatures, as well as competition among salmon at sea, are associated with shifts in salmon productivity, body size, and age at maturation. However, these relationships vary by species, location, and time, resulting in increased harvest opportunities in some regions and exacerbated conservation concerns in others. The weight-of-evidence suggests North Pacific salmon nations should, as a minimum, limit further increases in hatchery salmon production until there is a better scientific understanding of hatchery and wild salmon distribution at sea, how they interact, and how the consequences of these interactions are influenced by broader climate and ecosystem conditions. Coordinated research to overcome knowledge gaps and develop strategies to reduce unintended interactions between hatchery and wild salmon could be funded (in part) by a tax placed on industrial-scale hatchery salmon releases. A tax would formalize recognition that there are finite prey resources to support salmon in the ocean and that both prey and wild salmon represent a “common property” whose use should not be without cost to those that seek to benefit from them. We highlight additional approaches salmon nations can take to adapt to changing conditions and suggest that improved communication and collaboration among North Pacific salmon research and management agencies will be key to balancing the benefits and risks of a warming and more crowded ocean.