Peace in an extreme climate: How climate-related security risks affect prospects for stability in Lake Chad

The lake Chad region faces a humanitarian crisis with simultaneous risks coming from conflict and fragility. Climate change is compounding the many political, environmental, economic, and security challenges facing the region, exacerbating the already complex security challenges. Climate change is causing higher temperatures and greater fluctuations in rainfall patterns, making it harder for communities around Lake Chad to sustain their livelihoods. At the same time, the conflict between armed opposition groups and state security forces is increasing people’s vulnerability to climate change risks and undermining traditional coping mechanisms. This article presents the findings of the climate-security nexus assessment of the Lake Chad region to inform response options for the region. We conducted locally grounded, participatory conflict analysis. The conflict analysis is based on 229 in-depth one-to-one interviews, which have been conducted by a locally-led research team with affected communities around Lake Chad in all four countries of the region (Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria). It contributes to an evidence base to assess the specific ways climate change interacts with the risk landscape, systematically analysing how climate change shapes risks and determining appropriate responses for the Lake Chad region. The article sets out four climate-fragility risks: (i) Climate and ecological change increase livelihood insecurity; (ii) Vulnerability heightens as conflict and fragility strain coping capacities.; (iii) Resource conflicts rise due to scarcity.; and (iv) Livelihood insecurity fuel recruitment into armed groups. We argue that the success of stabilisation efforts to end violence in the region hangs on their ability to account for climate risks affecting Lake Chad.