Association of crop commercialization and rural households' multidimensional poverty using targeted maximum likelihood estimation

• The effect of crop commercialization on multidimensional poverty in Ethiopian rural households is analyzed. • The targeted maximum likelihood estimation with a default super learner model estimate was more precise than the augmented inverse probability of treatment weighted. • The risk of being multidimensionally poor among rural households that were crop commercialized is 12.2% lower than for those who were not. • Crop-commercialized rural households reduced the adjusted risk of multidimensional poverty by 12% for those who owned mobile phones and 7.8% for those who did not. Recent evidence shows the highest prevalence of multidimensional poverty in the world. To alleviate poverty, Ethiopia is investing in stimulating agricultural commercialization for poverty reduction, driving sustainable economic growth, and creating jobs. Therefore, this study investigated the causal relationship between crop commercialization and multidimensional poverty across Ethiopian rural households using the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey 2018/19 data, which included 1129 crop commercialized and 1585 completely subsistence rural households. Moreover, this study also examined the causal effect of crop commercialization on the multidimensional poverty mediated by mobile phone ownership status. The study used the double robust method of the augmented inverse probability of treatment weighted (AIPTW) and targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) methods. The result showed that crop commercialization has an association with multidimensional poverty. Specifically, the TMLE with a default super learner model estimates were the most precise and suggest that the prevalence of risk of being multidimensionally poor among rural households who were crop commercialized is 12.2% lower than for those who were completely subsistence households. Thus, it is important to have more robust policies like crop commercialization to target rural multidimensional poverty reduction. Moreover, the controlled direct effect estimation analyses showed that crop-commercialized rural households reduced the adjusted risk of multidimensional poverty by; 12% for those who owned mobile phones and 7.8% for those who did not. To ensure sustainable livelihoods for rural multidimensional poor households, it is necessary to have a multidisciplinary policy intervention to promote crop commercialization through the spread of mobile phones in rural areas.