Statistical analyse of outdoor blast wave propagation in real environments

The propagation of outdoor blast waves is governed by numerous physical parameters, including source energy, terrain relief, ground nature, and atmospheric conditions. Among these, certain effects are deterministic and can be effectively modeled through numerical simulations. This research leverages the one-way Flhoward code, used with Arome meteorological data and IGN topography, to simulate the waveforms of blast waves originating from 300 kg explosions up to a distance of 20 km. Given the inherent randomness of the medium, these waveform signatures exhibit a high degree of uncertainty. To address this uncertainty, we introduce a metamodel based on polynomial chaos, designed to quantify the uncertainties. First, this study focuses on the validation of the code for accurately simulating waves above a relief. Subsequent steps of the study involve a comprehensive comparison of outcomes from direct simulations and metamodel-based simulations against measurements obtained from records of well-calibrated ground explosions. This comparison not only validates the effectiveness of the Flhoward code and the developed metamodel but also highlights the significance of considering the random nature of the medium. This research paves the way to a framework for understanding and anticipating the impact of such phenomena across varied outdoor environments.