Spatiotemporal dynamics of the water footprint and virtual water trade in global cotton production and trade

Cotton, the world’s most widely cultivated fiber crop, is associated with a multitude of environmental impacts, particularly the intensive use of water resources. While previous studies have assessed cotton’s water usage through the water footprint concept, they largely focused on spatial variability, leaving temporal dynamics and the issue of unsustainable water use underexplored. This global study addressed these gaps by examining both the spatial and temporal variability of cotton’s water footprint and assessing the unsustainable water footprint over time. Additionally, it explored the potential of flax as a water-efficient alternative for fiber production. Using a global gridded crop model, the study simulated yield and water use of flax and cotton from 1972 to 2018 at 30 arcmin resolution. The results showed that the global average blue, green, and total water footprint of cotton decreased by 37%, 48%, and 43%, respectively, due to yield improvements driven by improved crop cultivars, fertilizers, and better water management practices, with climate playing a minor role in these reductions. Despite this, the total water footprint of cotton production increased by 5%, with the blue water footprint rising by 17%. Additionally, unsustainable blue water usage in cotton cultivation increased from 59.3 km³/y to 70.9 km³/y between 1972-1976 and 2014-2018, with 71.1% of the unsustainable water traded virtually. USA, Pakistan, and India accounted for over 60% of this unsustainable virtual water trade. Flax, with its substantially lower water footprint, emerged as a promising alternative to reduce water consumption in fiber production. These findings offer critical insights for formulating strategies to mitigate unsustainable water use in global fiber production. • We assessed cotton's water footprint (1972–2018) and virtual water trade of cotton products (1996–2018). • Global cotton’s unsustainable blue water footprint rose 19% from 59.3 km 3 /y to 70.9 km 3 /y. • From 2014- 2018, 71.1 % of cotton’s unsustainable blue water footprint was traded virtually. • High unsustainable blue water footprint emphasizes irrigation shift to low-water crops.