Environmental flows in a future climate: Balancing hydropower production and ecosystem rehabilitation in the Ume River system, Sweden

Hydropower is central to renewable electricity systems, but degrades ecosystems, calling for environmental flow schemes to enhance the ecological status of river systems. Environmental flow assessments need to account for climate change, since climate-driven changes in runoff affect both hydropower operation and riverine ecosystems. Here, we quantify expected changes in hydropower production and environmental benefits of introducing environmental flows in a large regulated river system in northern Sweden in a future climate. Compared with the hydrology of 1981-2010, runoff is projected to increase with climatic conditions projected for 2040, leading to a 2.2 % increase in hydropower production with present rules for turbine and reservoir operation. Implementing environmental flows will result in lower hydropower production losses in with the 2040 climate than at present: Introducing restrictions against zero flow events, discharge to technical fishways and bypassed reaches throughout the year (with seasonal flow variation), as well as having more natural water-level variation in all run-of-river impoundments, would reduce annual hydropower production with 3.5 % with present conditions, and by 3.3 % in 2040. At the same time, the net effect of higher runoff and introducing environmental flows means that the annual hydropower production in the 2040 climate would be only 0.8 % lower compared to 1981-2010. In all scenarios, reservoir filling degree in 2040 was projected to increase compared to scenarios for 1981-2010, and flow requirements were met for both environmental flows and hydropower production over an 83-year scenario-based time series. This study demonstrates the feasibility of introducing environmental flow actions in Sweden, and other regions where increases in runoff are projected, with sustained hydropower production, having large benefits for riverine biodiversity and enhancing resilience of riverine ecosystems to climate change. For this to be successful, collaboration among stakeholders in riverine management is needed.